A recession is looming.
Nomura has now become the First Bank to call for a 2022 recession.
BREAKING: Nomura Is First Bank To Call For 2022 Recession; Bank Expects "Modest" Recession Starting in Q4 2022https://t.co/p0hu6Thyn6
— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) June 20, 2022
Sure enough, we were right once again because late on Sunday, Nomura became only the second bank to join DB in calling for a recession as its base case, and also became the first bank expecting this outcome to hit some time in the second half (unlike DB’s generously delayed forecast of a “late 2023” recession).
And once again echoing what we said back in December 2021, when we predicted that “the Fed is hiking rates into a recession”…
According to economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal, there is a 44% chance of a recession over the next 12 months.
The Journal points out that this number is usually only seen when a recession is around the corner.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of recession, now putting it at 44% in the next 12 months, a level usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recessions.
The likelihood of a recession has increased rapidly this year as inflationary pressures remained strong and the Federal Reserve took increasingly aggressive action to tame them. Economists on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28% in the Journal’s last survey in April and at 18% in January.
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