The Philadelphia Fed is predicting an economic contraction in June.
This is the first contraction since the COVID lockdowns of 2020…
Looking into the details, we see that new orders contracted dramatically, as did the workweek as backlogs are worked through:
- June prices paid fell to 64.5 vs 78.9
- New orders fell to -12.4 vs 22.1
- Employment rose to 28.1 vs 25.5
- Shipments fell to 10.8 vs 35.3
- Delivery time fell to 9.9 vs 17.5
- Inventories fell to -2.2 vs 3.2
- Prices received fell to 49.2 vs 51.7
- Unfilled orders fell to -7.0 vs 17.9
- Average workweek fell to 11.8 vs 16.1
It gets even worse when looking at the 6-month outlook:
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