The Mainstream Media and left have run crazy with the idea of an upcoming recession. CBS News ran the bold headline “Most CFOs see a U.S. recession coming by 2020”. According to the survey they looked at this is true although quite misleading. Many of them the beginning to be here by 2020 but not having slipped into one yet.
They also however buried findings from Oxford Economics in the last paragraphs.
Yet some economists give decidedly different odds of a recession hitting, at least in 2019. Oxford Economics’ bond market-influenced “yield-curve model” puts the odds of a recession around 15 percent during the next 12 months, the firm said in a research note. Factoring in the dangers of a policy-induced economic slowdown raises the chances. In that case, Oxford Economics pegs odds of a recession at about 20 percent in 2019 and 35 percent in 2020.
The bottom line is don’t buy any of the narratives these people are selling. They have no clue if there is one coming because they simply can’t predict the future of the U.S economy. With Trump’s Chinese trade war, North Korea and fight on immigration still up in the air the economy is unpredictable and believe me these experts won’t be able to predict it.