We will continue to provide you REAL updates on the current situation in Ukraine.
Unlike the mainstream media, we will not push war propaganda.
This situation is tense and not something that should be taken lightly.
Here is another update:
SITREP – Day 8: Most analysts think the odds of a ceasefire are increasing in Ukraine.
They have it exactly backwards.
We've actually moved closer to the nightmare scenario where Kiev is simply leveled. 🧵
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
The fall of Kherson today, a city of 300k people, will mark a turning point in the war.
The Ukrainian forces barely put up any resistance, and the city was spared.
The message to other cities is clear: Fight and be leveled or surrender and be treated kindly. pic.twitter.com/cwZcmCI0DV
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
The goal of the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas will now be to "punch out of" the attempted RU encirclement.
But even if they can split the blades of the near pincer, the Russians can spring a *second* and *third* pincer on them.
They have multiple paths to bisect the country. pic.twitter.com/zm3vObNrzL
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
Russia no longer has the option of looking like a magnanimous victor by accepting a negotiated ceasefire.
If President Putin accepts something like a conditional surrender that preserves the integrity of the Ukrainian government, that will be spun as a defeat for Russia.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
It's critical to remember the domestic messaging that was used to introduce this conflict to the Russian people.
President Putin framed it as the sequel to the Second World War – a new struggle against Fascism on Russia's border, which threatened the country's very existence.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
It is irrelevant that, to outside observers, Ukraine is not a neo-Nazi state.
That is the *thesis of the conflict* from President Putin's perspective.
To understand what Putin will do, you have to look at the war through through his eyes – even if his vision is distorted.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
We've seen the use of MLRS rocket artillery, a horrifying platform that kills indiscriminately within a large target area.
Ukrainian forces survived so long in the early days of the war because Russia was reluctant to use heavy artillery. No longer. https://t.co/5Nz6vufuFr
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
The million dollar question is whether the Russians will use the same heavy-handed tactics in Kiev.
There's actually a simple answer: They don't want to, but they will if they have to.
Laying siege to a city of 3 million could be the ugliest part of the war.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
This raises a troubling moral quandary: Are we really helping the Ukrainians by encouraging them to fight?
I am awed by their bravery. It's fun to cheer on an underdog.
But if the end result is watching it get viciously torn to pieces, was it really worth it?
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
The end result of all of our cheering and all of our weapons deliveries could be a repeat of the Second Chechen War.
The Chechens fought even harder than the Ukrainians.
They inflicted horrifying losses on the Russian army, against all odds.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
What did it get them? A Russian siege of their capital that laid it to waste.
This was Grozny after the war. This is what so much Chechen bravery achieved.
If the Ukrainians keep fighting hard, it's what will happen to Kiev. All while we cheer them on from the sidelines. pic.twitter.com/UB06z1k9as
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) March 3, 2022
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