ATL FED: GDP 5% next quarter!

The Atlanta Federal Reserve predicted that next quarter the U.S Economy would grow at 5%.


Latest forecast: 5.0 percent — August 1, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 5.0 percent on August 1, up from 4.7 percent on July 31. The nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, after this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for July—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.21 to 0.52 after the ISM report this morning.

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