Many are now predicting that Virginia might be in play for President Trump to win.


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DavidHarrisJr.:

Based upon a Target Smart poll it appears as if President Donald J. Trump could win Virginia, in what would be a shocking victory for his campaign.

The news is based on lower than expected Democrat turn out in Early Voting, and if the turnout for Republicans is higher than expected, Trump is positioned to win Virginia.

A Democrat leaning polling group confirms that Trump could win Virginia, based on their data.

Data from the Dem leaning poll:

Target Smart, a Democrat-leaning election data firm, has reported its analysis of early voters — and its projection of who will vote on Election Day. It has concluded:
President Trump can win Virginia.

Target Smart provides the following data for Virginia:
Early Voting through 10/30/2020: 2,292,289+ ballots cast
DEM 1,109,287 (48.4%) REP 872,623 (38.1%) Other 310,379 (13.5%)
Of estimated total turnout in Virginia, based on past performance, 53% have already voted, leaving 46% to vote on Election Day with 1% no opinion.

Voters left to vote on Election Day: REP 55% DEM 30% IND 15%
Election Day Voters Preference: Trump 59% Biden 35% Jorgensen 4% (Libertarian).
In short, Target Smart concludes that President Trump is looking at a four-point lead in Virginia IF he gets a solid Republican turnout.

Nevada is also in play for President Trump:


Geller Report:

Early voting data shows they have a chance. Nevadans have three ways to vote this year: mail ballots, early voting and in person on Nov 3. Results aren’t released until the evening of Election Day, but information voting demographics is available. This allows you to know how many Democrats, Republicans and independents have cast ballots. Unless one candidate is doing terribly with his own party, this provides a rough idea of how the election is going.

As of Thursday afternoon, 43,600 more Democrats than Republicans had voted. The breakdown by party affiliation was 40.6 percent Democrat, 35.8 percent Republican and 23.6 percent independents and third parties. All data is from the secretary of state’s website.

In many ways, this is expected. As of September, Democrats had around 90,000 more registered voters than Republicans. Usually, Democrats build up a big lead in early voting and then try to survive on Election Day.

This year, there were even more reasons to anticipate an early Democrat surge. National Democrats urged voters to use mail ballots and return them early. That happened here. Democrats have a 113,800 lead in ballots returned by mail voting. Republicans have a 70,200 lead among those voting at the polls.

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