The 2020 election was another disaster for the polling industry.
According to a new report, 2020 election polls were the worst in 40 years.
The 2020 election polls overstated Biden’s support by 3.9%.
They overstated Biden’s support at the state level by 4.3%.
A new report from an association of public opinion and survey research professionals found that supporters of former President Donald Trump who refused to take part in surveys were one of the likely reasons polls overstated President Joe Biden’s lead in the 2020 election, the biggest polling inaccuracy in 40 years.
The report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) found that Biden’s lead over Trump was overstated in national polls by 3.9 percentage points, the largest such polling bias since 1980. At the same time, polls at the state level overestimated Biden’s lead by 4.3 percentage points, the biggest miss for state-level pre-election political preference surveys in at least 20 years.
The two most likely reasons for the polling inaccuracy were Trump supporters not responding to survey-takers and an influx of new voters that were not accounted for in polls, the report said. At the same time, the report’s authors noted that they were unable to make definitive conclusions on the reasons driving the 2020 polling biases.
“Identifying conclusively why polls overstated the Democratic–Republican margin relative to the certified vote appears to be impossible with the available data,” the report states. Its authors did rule out a number of factors blamed for pre-election poll inaccuracies in 2016, including late-deciding voters breaking heavily for Trump and the so-called “shy” voter phenomenon, which is the idea that voters would tell pollsters they were undecided despite having already made up their minds who to vote for.
Now it turns out that feeling was right. And the polls were not only wrong but more wrong than they had been in decades, including their dismal performance in 2016. A new report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that national election polls overstated Biden’s lead over Trump by 3.9 percentage points. And state-level polls were even worse, overstating Biden’s lead by 4.3 points.
The polls’ performance in statewide races — contests for senators and governors — was even worse. There, they overstated the Democratic candidates’ lead by an average of six percentage points.
Notice something? The errors went in one direction: Overstating support for Democratic candidates. “Whether the candidates were running for president, senator, or governor, poll margins overall suggested that Democratic candidates would do better and Republican candidates would do worse relative to the final certified vote,” the report says.
So all those Republicans who said the polls were biased against Trump and the GOP — they were right.
Suppression polling folks.
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