According to a new Poll from an ABC News/Washington Post poll that was conducted by telephone Oct. 8-11, 2018 the Democrats now only hold a one-point advantage in House races that are a toss up or are leaning either way.
That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race.
That said, this poll suggests a higher than typical midterm turnout, which should advantage the Democrats. Among all registered voters, 76 percent say they’re certain to vote next month, vs. 63 percent at this time in 2014 and 70 percent in 2010. While voting intention is high across the board, that’s especially the case among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, nonwhites and 18- to 39-year-olds.
This is an important poll. The entire write up ABC did on the Poll talks about how Democrats hold a big lead in the generic ballot.
However, that matters little due to the fact the Polls give the Democrats a one-point advantage in races that are close.
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